Europe - Gross goverment debt (Bn's €)

How big is the debt crisis in Europe?

Information supplied by Coronation 

Timing the market or Time in the market?

Time in the market is crucial

During the market volatility of the past few years, many investors saw dramatic falls in their portfolios.  No one can predict what the market will do in the future, so don’t let short-term volatility drive your long-term investment planning.  Investors can act emotionally and as a result may sell out at or near the stock market bottom.  Successful market timing during a decline is extremely difficult, because it requires two near-perfect actions: getting out and then getting back in, both at the right time.

The opportunity cost can be substantial if you wait until you feel confident in the market.  You could miss the best days by staying on the side lines.  The main factor working against market timing is that market gains often come in quick bursts and if you miss enough of them, you could lose all of the long-term advantages of owning shares.  

The figure  illustrates the opportunity cost facing investors.  If you had invested R100 000 over the past 15 years to March 2012 in the South African FTSE/JSE All Share Index, your investment would have grown to R526 836. However, if you had decided to get out of the market during volatile periods in these 15 years and as a result missed the market’s best 10 days (that is 10 out of 3 765 trading days) your investment would have only grown to only R289 513.

Currencies

Rand vs US Dollar

US Dollar vs Euro

Debt to GDP - South Africa vs The World

Commodity prices - Orange juice vs Gold

Cooper prices also reached record highs, driven by emerging-market demand, before falling back by the end of the year. Crop prices dropped thanks to bumper harvests for cereals, oils and wheat. Concerns over the supply of orange juice have pushed prices to a record high this week. A destructive fungicide was found in an orange shipment from Brazil, the world’s largest producer of orange juice

TAX RATES INDIVIDUALS - 2013

TAX RATES INDIVIDUALS - 2013
Taxable income Rates of tax:
R 0 - R160 000                        18% of taxable income
R160 001 - R250 000             R 28 800 + 25% of the amount over R160 000
R250 001 - R346 000             R 51 300 + 30% of the amount over R250 000
R346 001 - R484 000             R 80 100 + 35% of the amount over R346 000
R484 001 - R617 000             R128 400 + 38% of the amount over R484 000
R617 001 +                              R178 940 + 40% of the amount over R617 000

TAX THRESHOLDS - 2013
Taxable income:
Persons under 65                   R 63 556
Persons 65 and under 75      R 99 056
Persons 75 and over              R110 889

TAX REBATES - 2013
Amounts deductible from the tax payable:
Persons under 65                   R11 440
Persons 65 and under           R17 830
Persons 75 and over              R19 960

Benchmark performance for the calendar year 2011

Patience

In the previous edition of Cognitio (3rd Quarter 2011), SIM commented on some investors losing patience with the low returns generated by equities during 2011 and probably more so over the past three to four years (the annualised return since the peak reached in 2008 is 3.8%).  It is invariably after a painful period for equities that investors often reduce their exposure or abandon them altogether.  This activity often occurs at precisely the wrong time.  Investors should actually feel more confident about the long-term potential of equities after a prolonged period of disappointment.  The chart below shows annualised five-year returns from 1960 to 2011.  Over this period there were a total of 8 five year periods when returns were below the most recent five year annualised returns of 8.8%.  However, during each five year period when returns were below 10%, they were followed by a better five year period (this comes with the normal health warning that past performance is no guarantee of future results).  For example, an annualised return between 1994 and 1998 of 4% was followed by a 17% average annual return from 1999 to 2003.  While we cannot say with any certainty what the next five years will hold, it is likely to be better than the previous five years.  In the shorter term investors may still endure hard times, but low valuations increase the likelihood of higher future returns.

Chart: 5yr total returns for the FTSE/JSE All Share Index

While we have had a tough year, successful investing involves the disciplined and patient execution of a long term strategy, especially when it is an emotionally fraught time.  

With thanks to SIM Unconstrained Capital Partners – from their latest Quarterly News Letter Cognitio